Confirming Stats on Illegal Labor

Philip Marey of Rabobank

It’s been interesting, really, to see the kind of feedback that I’ve gotten on notes to the idea that deportation is something that is being talked of in a drastic manner by all involved on the government’s side, by Trump supporters, and that such an action will have drastic consequences that I don’t believe most people are ready for. Nor do I believe that Trump Co. has a plan in place to limit those outcomes, avoid them, or do anything about them.

To summarize my claims, they are such that:

1. Illegal immigrants are ingrained and foundational to several key elements of the US economy (Big Ag Fruits/Veggies, Meat processing, Construction, Restaurants, and more). These industries rely on their labor, and their labor sets the bottom floor to the extent it affects all wages throughout the entirety of the industries involved.

2. Illegal immigrants are a foundational demand for the consumption of houses, healthcare, welfare, and other aspects of our economy.

3. If you only focus on them being a “net drain” on the economy, you completely miss how they are blowing bubbles in other sectors. To eliminate them with no plan is to not fix the economy, but instead merely pop the bubbles, and drag the whole thing under

4. Which, in this case, involves fruits and veggies rotting, meat not being processed, homes not being built/dropping in value/margin called with people possibly on the streets, at a time when there’s suddenly an empty space for healthcare demand and people losing jobs for that, and more people needing food stamps.

Overall, it looks like a nightmare to me. However, the pushback on these points, which seem so obvious, was so great that

Kenaz Filan

,

Ahnaf Ibn Qais

, and

Aspen

sat down with myself to talk about it. Because we were all shocked that Aspen’s article, and our responses to it, were getting that pushback.

Eurabiamania 60: Talking Turkey with the DOOM Gang

And now, I’m merely laughing, because Philip Marey is giving us good stats from his most recent publication for the public. From his stats, that he got from Pew, given in percentages of the workforce for the industry in question:

Farming Legal 21 Illegal 22 Total 43

Construction Legal 13 Illegal 15 Total 28

Production Legal 14 Illegal 8 Total 22

Service Legal 15 Illegal 8 Total 22

Transportation Legal 14 Illegal 6 20

Do you think that the Legal side of that equation is given to being completely…. agreeable, and as productive as they currently are, if they Illegal part of the equation disappears?

Further, in his Table 1, here are percentages of workforces by immigrants in total (IE, not divided between legal/illegal). I would posit - which Marey doesn’t do anything but give hard, given facts from others - that the immigrants from non-third world countries are better at faking their legal vs illegal status. Thus, I would wager that some of these that don’t make table 2 (which is mostly S Americans) are illegal Asians, undercutting US workers but still paying taxes. Or illegally taking advantage of various work programs:

1 Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance occupations 40

2 Farming, fishing, and forestry occupations 37

3 Construction and extraction occupations 35

4 Computer and mathematical occupations 27

5 Food preparation and serving related occupations 24

6 Production occupations 24

7 Healthcare support occupations 24

8 Life, physical, and social science occupations 23

9 Transportation and material moving occupations 22

10 Personal care and service occupations 22

In total, that is a ton of foreign labor driving prices of labor down, margins up, and prices of consumer goods slightly down.

As Marey says in his article

We have identified occupations and economic sectors that depend heavily on immigrant labor, but is this really a problem if illegal immigrants are removed? In October 2024, almost 7 million people were unemployed. A recent estimate3 puts the amount of unauthorized immigrant workers at 8.3 million. So even if the Trump administration manages to remove 84% of all illegal immigrants, there should be enough unemployed Americans to fill their jobs. Could removing illegal immigrants from the workforce open opportunities to those who are now at the sidelines?

Unfortunately, substituting illegal immigrants by Americans may not be that easy. The 2020 Pew study suggests that Americans find these jobs unattractive (table 3). More than three-quarters (77%) of all respondents think that undocumented immigrants mostly fill jobs that US citizens don’t want. Among Hispanics this opinion is even held by 88%, ranging from 82% among US-born Hispanics to 94% among foreign-born Hispanics. So immigrants have even less confidence that Americans will fill undocumented immigrant jobs. Of course, this is not exactly the same question as “would you like to do a job that is often filled by immigrants?” posed to respondents with an educational match to these jobs, but it does suggest that it may be difficult to fill these jobs after the deportations. For jobs held by legal immigrants these percentages are somewhat lower, suggesting that their jobs are somewhat more desirable.

However, he doesn’t get into either the question of “How about if we raise the price? At what price would you want the job?” That would be one to put to the teenager, the high school educated, the 20’s man, etc. That’s how we tell what the clearing price is in today’s economy, and what the potential margin compression is, the inflation, etc.

That’s how much we pay for not having slave labor in those sectors.

Because we need it. Because, he doesn’t work next to people that have been serially unemployed - that are drug users, psychotics, physically disabled, too old to work hard days doing what Mexicans can do for cheap, and the like. Never worked next to the beat down old man, making half your wage at 55 that you make at 30, listening to you tell the Gen Z part of your crew that Social Security will go bankrupt, plan on a family to retire, and invest in real things - none of which he has, and he’s your worst, least reliable worker. The one where, if he was fired, he’d collect every cent of unemployment.

The numbers just aren’t there. Even the people taking them at face value, and saying 1:1 sure, why not? say they’re not.

So, what to do?

For critical areas like Agriculture, we can subsidize to avoid companies going under, price shock at the consumer end, and step it down over time. Do something like a 4 year plan where every year the Gov pays less, the employer more, and the price goes up at the store to match. Let the money filter through, and affect labor markets as well.

And it’s critical we find ways to do it.

Because, as I’ve argued, if we also add in tariffs, that will also put pressure on wages going up as production moves either to a higher friendly production area or home. Which means, again, there’s pricing pressure going up.

If these prices on necessary consumer goods go up, at the same time food goes up, and people start getting laid off, and then businesses close, there’s a food shortage, etc…

Well, as

Phisto Sobanii

would say… Here comes Franco. If we’re lucky.

If not?

Well, there’s always a Lenin waiting in the wings.