Exponential Demographics are Exponential

Why I don't Bother Arguing Natalism

So. A lot of back and forth goes on about “demographics this” and “demographics that.” People will cite anyone from Peter Zeihan to whoever their favorite person is.

As always, me, being an Uncouth Barbarian, think they’re all wrong. I don’t think people understand Exponential Demographics and how they work.

You see, most of the people that are doing the demographics assume that the underlying changes of the past 10+ years will stay the same. So they quickly pull some data from government databases, put it in their models, and wham! bam! thank you mam! there you go - here is my fancy, look at it, presentation that you should pay me lots of money to be a Prophet on how the Market will move. Trust me, America demographics are Great! China’s are AWFUL! Russia’s are EVEN WORSE!

So says Zeihan, the neocon Prophet, who has been claiming Russia will lose the war, run out of ammo, etc etc.

Now, what isn’t mentioned is how models can break. Trends don’t go to your model.

So, for instance, here in America we have groups, small in number now, like Traditional Catholics that don’t believe in any contraceptives or abortion. The same with the Eastern Orthodox (to my knowledge, not being one), and Muslims.

The same holds true in Europe.

So, given their small numbers, they may not be statistically relevant on current models and thus not show up on past or current trend lines. But, if those families are having 6-12 children each in their families, while the general population is having 1.4 (and that’s WITH the 6-12 being counted!) then the Exponential groups will come to dominate those that simply aren’t living a human life.

Because, to those groups that don’t practice contraceptives, we simply view it as being human, not as ‘being a natalist’. It sounds silly, to our ears, to do what human beings have always done.

But, may one ponder why, exactly, it is that the FBI and CIA has targeted them as potential Terrorists? May it be, I suspect, the same reason that Pharaoh in Egypt worried about the Jews? That the same people that saved his nation, a small but dedicated populace, out bred him in a short couple hundred years? Because his own, well off, rich populace practiced contraception and abortion as well as the primative peoples could!

Because at some point life happens for the Egyptians and Jews. Their model broke, the Jews became numerous, and had to leave.

But, I don’t bother arguing about this. Because I’m a convert to Catholicism, and I remember how odd it was hearing it for the first time. Back in the wee days of old, when I was young and dumb in the early 00’s, I was going on Saturdays to a local coffee shop that would have live music from young, local Christian bands. Being a single guy, when a cute, attractive young lady I’d had my eyes on asked me to her youth group, I definitely did not say no. It was my first time ever walking into a Catholic Parish, and the priest gave a talk on contraceptives.

I’d never even heard of Catholicism at that point in my life, or what it was, and here I was sitting next to a cute girl I was interested in being lectured on what I remember being so far out there that I had traveled to another world, and why was he dressed so odd? And who was he to tell me what I could and couldn’t do?

AND I JUST WANTED TO KISS THE GIRL! I HAVEN’T KISSED HER YET AND YOU’RE TALKING TO ME ABOUT SEX!

So yeah, when she came and asked what I thought of it after the priest was done, I froze. How do you respond to that at 16 or 17?

The point being, I remember how far out there the argument was.

But, at some point, it simply won’t matter. Why bother trying to outlaw contraceptives now, and only encourage their use or blowback? The point of law is to make the populace better. Wait till we’re the majority of the populace, and they’re the minority, and deal with it then.

I’m 8 years into a marriage, and in 2 months will have my 6th child. I told friends that married around the same time I did, in a joking but kind of serious way, that I’d race them to 10.

The average family size around me is probably around 7 or 8. I know families of 14 children.

Now, when 1 or 2 of them become priests or nuns, that may push back on the exponential equations a little bit, but you also have to keep in mind that we have conversions as well. Traditional Latin mass, Orthodox, and Muslims, in the US, have the highest conversion rates right now.

So, right now, we’re not just racing my friends, but we’re also racing the other religions. I think the Latin Mass is winning, from what I know.

So why argue? Why become a “natalist”? I honestly don’t even know what it means to be one.

Why not just be human, and make babies; as many as God gives to you, and be happy with that?